Principal Analyst, Forecasting and Modelling

  • Company:
    Govt NZ Jobs
  • Location:
  • Salary:
    negotiable / month
  • Job type:
  • Posted:
    1 week ago
  • Category:
  • Job Type:
  • Category: Government & Defence
  • Location: Wellington
  • Date Advertised: 12-OCT-20
  • Job Reference: EDU/1488236
  • Job Title: Principal Analyst, Forecasting and Modelling
  • Business Unit:
  • Division:
  • Summary:

Principal Analyst

Forecasting and Modelling Team

Evidence, Data and Knowledge


About us

At the Ministry of Education, our people shape an education system that delivers equitable and excellent outcomes.


About our group

Evidence, Data and Knowledge’s (EDK) purpose is to inform educational policy and practice with evidence.  We provide high quality in-depth data and information to our customers whilst proactively providing insights and building capability and knowledge in the use of evidence.


About the role

The Forecasting & Modelling team is responsible for analysis that supports the Ministry’s Early Learning and Schooling policy and operational functions. The team works across the organisation to promote the effective use of evidence, including by:

  1. Delivering high quality forecasts of future public expenditure for large components of the $14 billion that the government invests annually in the schooling and early childhood education system;
  2. Working with colleagues across the Ministry of Education and beyond on cutting-edge policy development, utilising our expertise in policy costing and impact analysis; and
  3. Undertaking operational rate-setting and eligibility calculations, to ensure that schools and early childhood education services are appropriately funded.


We also have a sub-team within the Forecasting & Modelling team, which provides analytical leadership in the exciting and highly relevant area of education workforce data.  We are looking for an enthusiastic Principal Analyst to join the team, to lead on complex workstreams and provide mentoring, oversight and informal leadership to Senior Analysts and Analysts within the team.


The Education Workforce Project Team is responsible for analysing the dynamics of the education workforce, and working across the organisation to support policy and operational functions in this critical area.  Key responsibilities of the Project Team include:

  1. Developing, improving and using the Ministry’s datasets and models relating to the education workforce;
  2. Modelling the costs and impacts of potential policies relating to the education workforce;
  3. Forecasting the demand for, and supply of, teachers and other education professionals; and
  4. Interrogating data to derive new insights into the education workforce, and communicating these insights to internal stakeholders, Ministers and the public through published reports and other mediums.


About You

To be successful in this role you will be an experienced and highly-motivated analyst, with a desire to lead, collaborate, influence and make an impact.  You will have the opportunity to use your mastery of data analysis techniques in a vital area of education system policy and operations.  This will require you to develop deep knowledge of the subject area and available data, and then apply this knowledge flexibly as the operating environment and strategic priorities evolve.  This role would be a great fit for an analyst with some experience of team and/or project leadership, or for a candidate who wishes to develop as a thought leader whilst continuing to exercise and expand your analytical expertise.


You will have:

  • A desire to be close to the action, welcoming the responsibility that comes with providing analysis that informs decisions critical to the future of the education system.
  • A demonstrated ability to think conceptually and translate new and emerging ideas into evidence-based quantitative analysis of impacts.
  • A working understanding of project management and a proven track record of helping teams to deliver results.
  • An affinity for working collaboratively with team members, internal customers and other stakeholders to determine needs, obtain information, develop approaches and communicate results, including in environments that require strategic nous.
  • Proven technical skills, including advanced proficiency in Microsoft Excel and SAS.
  • An eye for detail, taking pride in the accuracy of your work and offering robust and constructive peer review to colleagues.
  • The ability to communicate complex concepts and evidence to a variety of audiences, both in writing and verbally.
  • Experience in a relevant discipline such as policy modelling, forecasting, quantitative research, or data extraction, manipulation and reporting.


You will be able to:

  • Use strategic awareness and innovation to contribute to the development of a work programme, and analytical, project and people management skills to drive the delivery of this, working with and through others.
  • Support and mentor colleagues, and exercise influence without formal line management responsibility.
  • Develop strong working relationships with members of the team, the broader EDK group, and the policy and operational arms of the Ministry.  Leverage off these relationships and a collaborative working style to inform and encourage evidence-based decision-making.
  • Formulate research questions and interrogate data and other sources of evidence to develop robust conclusions.
  • Translate complex models and insights into accessible messages for customers and senior leaders to ensure appropriate interpretation, achieve buy-in, and influence decision-makers.
  • Design analytical frameworks and practical methodologies to estimate the financial and non-financial impacts of policy initiatives.
  • Drive the continuous improvement of forecasting through developing a deep understanding of the drivers underpinning change, maintaining an awareness of policy development and trends in the external environment, and experimenting with new technical possibilities.


This is a permanent position, based in Wellington.


We welcome candidates from diverse backgrounds, including Māori, Pacific and those with disabilities, who will enrich our understanding of the education system.


There is more information in the position description attached.  Please take a look and if this opportunity sounds like you, please apply now using the ‘Apply for this job’ button.  Or if you would like further information please email Sue Singh at


Applications close on 26 October 2020.